A look at how Trump's tariffs and pressure on Brazil are shaping an election year that pits Lula against the Bolsonaro family — messy for everyone, with no clear winner yet.

• Trump put tariffs on Brazil — hitting coffee and aluminum — over claims Brazil censored speech and over the jailing of former president Bolsonaro.
• The tariffs backfired in the US, where coffee prices jumped, embarrassing Trump as a champion of working people.
• Tariffs are now fading after a meat-company billionaire lobbied Trump and Lula and Trump met at the UN, though relations soured again after Lula attacked Trump at the G7.
• Lula's popularity rose most when he was fighting Trump and defending Brazil's sovereignty, but stalled once Trump called him a friend.
• Bolsonaro is under house arrest for trying to overturn the 2022 election; his son Flavio is now running for the right but lacks his father's charisma.

Outlook: With the World Cup distracting voters, the real campaign heats up after August — and Brazil's right looks well-positioned to retake power, even if not this cycle.