Pundits on the right are celebrating renewed US strikes on Iran and a new Israel-Lebanon framework, but the deal looks shaky and oil flows could keep dragging the US back into the conflict.

• Trump's weekend bombing of Iran is being hailed by figures like Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin as a return to a tougher Middle East stance aimed at weakening Iran.
• A new US-brokered framework between Israel and Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah and let Israel keep occupying southern Lebanon, which Netanyahu is selling as a win.
• The deal left out Hezbollah, sparking protests and fires in Beirut and raising the risk of a wider crisis or even civil war.
• The real pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz: until ships and their insurers feel safe, high oil prices keep squeezing the US economy.
• The US strategic oil reserve is running low and gas prices are a political headache, which is part of why Trump wants the Iran fight off the front pages.

Outlook: As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays unstable, Iran's economic leverage will keep the conflict simmering and the fragile deal at risk of falling apart.