US tech stocks look shaky as Washington locks down its best AI models, and China closes the gap fast — bad for US tech valuations and the whole AI investment story.

• The US cleared Anthropic's top model for wider use, but only to 100 picked companies and federal agencies — everyone else needs an export license.
• Washington is treating AI like a weapon, the same way it uses the dollar and tariffs: follow our rules or get cut off.
• China's Zhipu model nearly matches Anthropic's best at a fraction of the cost, and it's open-source, so anyone worldwide can download and run it without US permission.
• AI is also getting too expensive to justify — enterprise tools that cost $500 a month now run over $2,000, more than just hiring a person.
• The Iran ceasefire is wobbling, oil shipments through Hormuz are down sharply, and another inflation shock could send rates higher and force selling.

Outlook: If China keeps matching US AI cheaper and more freely, money and customers shift east, and the trillion-dollar US AI valuations start to unwind.