Trump's July 4th fair on the National Mall is off to a weak start, a bad sign for an administration trying to project national confidence.

• Opening drew small crowds — early estimates put attendance in the low thousands or less, with power outages and other glitches.
• A private group put up a Confederate flag in North Carolina's section before being forced to take it down; some states like Pennsylvania skipped sending official displays.
• Trump is fixated on DC cosmetics — fountains, the White House ballroom, the reflecting pool, even redesigning a local golf course — instead of bigger problems.
• High gas prices, a messy Iran war, and corruption stories are dragging on the national mood ahead of the 250th anniversary.
• Polls show weak enthusiasm: nearly half of people aren't excited for the America 250 celebrations and a majority won't fly a flag on the 4th.

Outlook: Crowds are unlikely to pick up much, and sour public sentiment looks set to weigh on Trump heading into the midterms.