The US is pressuring Cuba to change or face invasion, and the island is too weak to fight back — bad news for ordinary Cubans caught in the middle.

• After capturing Venezuela's Maduro and striking Iran, the Trump administration has turned its sights on Cuba.
• A US blockade cut off oil to the island, causing blackouts, stalled transport, hospital failures, and food shortages.
• Washington wants free elections, freed political prisoners, and compensation for seized property — or it may attack.
• Cuba is trying its biggest economic reforms since 1959, opening up to private business, but they need US sanctions lifted to work.
• Cuba's military is old and out of fuel; even with 300 drones from Russia and Iran, it can't seriously threaten the US.

Outlook: If Havana can't convince Washington it has changed fast enough, a US military strike — the third this year — becomes likely.