The Iran standoff is far from over, and it points to economic pain — likely higher oil prices and a rocky world economy in the months ahead.

• Iran is playing hardball over the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint most of the world's oil ships through, and wants to charge tankers a fee to pass — possibly $2 million each, tens of billions a year.
• This is about power, not money: Iran wants to become the dominant force in the Persian Gulf, and the US and Israel don't accept that, so the fighting can't truly end.
• Global oil stockpiles are running low, giving Iran its strongest leverage by around August, when any disruption would hit hard.
• Israel is still hitting southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire, and the US keeps building up forces in the Gulf — 50,000 troops and more aircraft — so a return to fighting stays on the table.
• Iran is hinting it wants nuclear weapons; an actual test would be a huge problem Trump couldn't ignore.

Outlook: Expect a tense, unstable stretch between now and January, with a real chance oil costs and economic pain climb as Iran pushes to force the US out of the region.