Trump has turned on Israel, publicly criticizing its war in Lebanon and pushing for peace with Iran — good news for anyone who wants the conflict to end, infuriating for Israel and its US backers.

• Trump said Israel has handled Lebanon and Hezbollah badly, with too many people killed and too much destruction.
• He praised Iran's leaders as smart and rational, and dismissed regime change as something that never works.
• A leaked deal would give Iran sanctions relief and Gulf money in exchange for no nuclear weapons program.
• Israel and its US allies are livid and expected to try to wreck the deal, likely by resuming strikes on Lebanon.
• The bigger driver may be economics: a dwindling US oil reserve and threat to the global economy push Trump toward ending the war.

Outlook: Peace hinges on whether Trump holds his position, but he is a known flip-flopper and Israel will try to pull the US back into the fight.