The US-Iran nuclear deal is being called a scam, and that's bad news for anyone hoping the conflict is over — a renewed war is likely once both sides restock weapons and oil.

• The peace deal is a cover: Vice President JD Vance admitted it's meant to buy time to refill US oil and missile stockpiles before fighting resumes.
• Both the US and Israel are depleted after months of fighting and can't sustain full-scale war right now, so they're stalling.
• Trump has quietly softened his August 18th deadline and dropped the nuclear demand for now — signs he's playing for time, not peace.
• Iran refuses real talks until frozen assets are returned and sanctions lifted, so the two sides remain far apart.
• Oil prices dropped to around $71, but that's temporary — Russia and Iran will likely be brought back into the global oil market to avoid an economic crash.

Outlook: Expect no real peace but a slow-burn conflict — proxy fights and limited strikes — with a return to heavier fighting possible after the US midterms.