Both the US and Iran are betting on diplomacy while quietly preparing for another war, which is bad news for anyone hoping the Middle East conflict is over.

• JD Vance said the US is using the current pause to refill the world's oil supply, which some read as prep for restarting the war.
• Analysts see this as a "plan B": the US is trying for a nuclear deal but building leverage in case talks fail, and Iran is doing the same by rebuilding its military and underground bases.
• Iran now believes Israel will attack again before October, partly because a US-brokered Israel-Lebanon deal weakens Hezbollah and gives Israel a freer hand.
• Netanyahu faces elections and jail over corruption charges if he loses, giving him strong personal reasons to launch another war.
• Gas and fertilizer prices are still strained from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and the US had to declare an emergency to import fertilizer from Morocco.

Outlook: Talks have survived the drama so far and neither side wants full war, but more flare-ups are likely and a fresh Israeli strike on Iran is seen as possible before October.