US-Iran talks have gone nowhere and a fragile ceasefire is barely holding, a bad sign for anyone hoping the conflict winds down soon.

• Kushner and Witkoff met with Iran in Qatar, but the indirect talks produced nothing.
• Trump has been briefed on options including full-scale war, but keeps pushing back toward diplomacy and is fine with the nuclear deal deadline slipping to give talks more time.
• Iran's moderates have been killed off, leaving hardliners in charge who now want to control the Strait of Hormuz and push Israel out of Lebanon.
• Israel keeps undercutting the talks — striking Iran's negotiators and staying in Lebanon against US wishes — because the US never backs its words with real pressure.
• The war has already cost the US over $13 billion, and one-off tit-for-tat strikes keep threatening to reignite the fighting.

Outlook: Without the US taking a harder line on Israel or pulling troops out of strike range, the ceasefire stays shaky and talks are likely to keep stalling.