Michigan's Senate race just narrowed in a way that signals a national shift, and it's bad news for establishment Democrats and Trump-aligned Republicans alike.

• Progressive candidate Mallory McMorrow quit the Michigan Senate primary, leaving her supporters up for grabs.
• The race is now a close fight between Abdul El-Sayed, backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC, and Elissa Slotkin's camp, tied to Chuck Schumer.
• El-Sayed leads most polls, framing his run as getting money out of politics and pushing Medicare for All.
• Republican Mike Rogers, the lone GOP name, is closely tied to Trump — seen here as a weak bet.
• New polling shows most voters think the Iran war wasn't worth the cost and left the US weaker, undercutting Trump-linked candidates.

Outlook: If the mood for change holds, the insurgent candidate looks favored to win the primary and set the tone for similar races nationwide.