Massive funeral crowds in Tehran show Iran is more united and defiant after the war than US and Israeli leaders expected — bad news for anyone who bet the strikes would topple the regime.

• Hundreds of thousands turned out to mourn the assassinated Supreme Leader, undercutting claims that Iranians were ready to overthrow their government.
• The war strengthened the IRGC instead of breaking it, and lifted them out of a sanctions squeeze with more money and support.
• The US reportedly warned Iran that Israel scrambled jets to shoot down Iran's own negotiators mid-talks, showing how shaky the ceasefire is.
• Hamas leaders showed up in Tehran too, a sign that side also survived the war it was supposed to erase.
• Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has bounced back to about a third of pre-war levels, easing some pressure on global supply.

Outlook: A fragile week-long pause is holding, but power struggles inside Iran and fresh fighting in Yemen leave the region primed for more flare-ups.