Mali is being pushed toward collapse as two rebel groups team up and start winning against the government and its Russian allies — bad for Mali, bad for Moscow, and dangerous for the whole Sahel.

• A jihadist group (JNIM) and a Tuareg separatist group (the FLA) launched coordinated attacks on July 4, hitting five towns at once and pinning down Malian and Russian forces.
• The two groups have very different goals but share the same enemies, and their partnership is getting more effective with each attack.
• Mali and Russia are harming their own cause by letting their forces attack Tuareg and Fulani civilians, which pushes those communities toward the rebels.
• Russia is taking it seriously, sending weapons and using Iranian-style Shahed drones on this battlefield for the first time; a relief convoy was still ambushed and a helicopter shot down.
• If Mali falls, neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger — which also kicked out France and turned to Moscow — look just as fragile.

Outlook: Fighting over the key town of Anefis will likely decide whether eastern Mali holds, and a bigger government convoy is heading there for another attempt to push the rebels back.