The Fed's latest minutes point to no rate cuts this year and even a small chance of a hike, which is bad news for borrowers hoping for cheaper loans.

• The Fed expects to hold interest rates steady for the rest of 2026, with its first cut not likely until spring 2027.
• Inflation is running higher than a year ago, blamed on tariffs, higher energy costs, and huge spending on AI buildouts.
• Big businesses can still get loans easily, but small businesses and people with weak credit are being squeezed.
• Investors are getting pickier about US government bonds, a warning sign for a government drowning in debt.
• The Fed is split — a few members even floated raising rates — and says it will just react to the data rather than commit to a plan.

Outlook: Markets see almost no chance of a cut soon and put an 85% chance rates end the year higher than today, so borrowing stays expensive for now.