Bad news for oil markets and anyone hoping the Iran war stayed ended — Trump declared the ceasefire dead and put sanctions back on Iranian oil after fresh strikes both ways.

• Iran hit up to five commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US hit back hard, the biggest exchange of fire since the ceasefire started.
• The fight is over control of the strait: Iran wants ships to check in with it before passing, the US refuses because that would admit Iran controls the waterway.
• Even heavy US strikes can't force Iran to back down — the only real options are a full invasion and regime change, or going back to negotiating.
• Gas prices stay high, a full dollar above pre-war levels, and Trump can't fully restart the war because he needs oil cheaper, so everyone is stuck.
• A Qatari gas tanker got hit, showing Iran will strike anyone who skips its rules, and one bad hit could cause a huge explosion or environmental disaster.

Outlook: Expect on-again, off-again clashes in the strait with high oil prices, and many inside Iran already believe full-blown war returns within six months.