US forces have launched heavy strikes on Iran after Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz — bad news for oil markets and anyone hoping the recent ceasefire would hold.

• Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, hit three commercial tankers — including a Qatari gas tanker — for using a route Iran had not approved.
• The US retaliated with some of its heaviest strikes of the war, hitting Qeshm Island and the port at Bandar Abbas.
• The attacks came just as Trump arrived at a NATO summit in Turkey, where leaders are now scrambling over what to do about the strait.
• A shaky 60-day deal let ships pass toll-free, but Iran says talks are over if US threats continue — the posture of a side that thinks it holds the leverage.
• A telling clue: JD Vance suggested the deal was only meant to get oil flowing again and restock US missiles, hinting Washington always planned to return to war.

Outlook: With Iran unbowed and both sides doubting the deal, expect more strikes and renewed pressure on oil prices in the near term.