US and Iran are trading air strikes in a fast-escalating cycle, with reports of a hit on a nuclear power plant — bad news for the region, oil shipping, and the global economy.

• US and Iran are hitting each other back and forth, now up to about 90 targets, with Iranian media claiming a US strike near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
• Iran says it hit US-linked sites in Kuwait, Jordan, and Iraq in response; casualties are being reported on both sides.
• The US struck bridges and coastal sites to hurt Iran's ability to attack ships, including a bridge tied to Iran-China trade, which could anger Beijing.
• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to slow, threatening to push oil prices and global inflation higher.
• At home, the economy is softening: Pepsi missed earnings as shoppers cut back, and the coming boomer wealth transfer is expected to mostly enrich people who are already rich.

Outlook: The tit-for-tat strikes look set to keep escalating, with a real risk to Hormuz shipping and no ceasefire holding.