A populist Democrat quits the Maine Senate race after sexual assault allegations, and the fight over who replaces him is bad news for the progressive movement but a fresh opening for Republicans.

• Graham Platner suspended his Senate campaign, calling the allegations against him false but saying the party establishment had already cut off his funding and infrastructure.
• The Democratic establishment — Schumer, the DSCC, super PACs — moved fast to blacklist him, framed here as a coordinated effort to kill a populist movement, not just one candidate.
• Maine Democrats will pick a replacement at a 600-person convention by late July, and Platner's 15,000 volunteers plan to organize behind a progressive like state legislator Troy Jackson.
• A snap internal poll had Platner and other possible replacements all within a few points of Republican Susan Collins, before any negative ads run.
• Republicans smell blood: the NRSC expects to pour money and attack ads on whoever emerges, in what is shaping up as a strong year for the GOP.

Outlook: Maine Democrats have until late July to name a replacement, and whether progressives or establishment favorites win that fight will decide if the movement's volunteers still show up in November.