The partnership between Russia and China looks equal from the outside, but the power is clearly tilting toward Beijing — bad for Moscow, which is sliding into junior-partner status.

• Russia and China back each other against the US and Europe, but China now holds the upper hand.
• Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia: China is Russia's top trading partner, while Russia is under 3% of China's trade.
• The Ukraine war deepened this — China profits by selling goods and helping Russia dodge sanctions, which only makes Moscow more dependent.
• China is quietly muscling in on Russia's backyard, shielding Belarus and Kazakhstan from Moscow's pressure and pulling them closer.
• Chinese academics are floating the idea of one day annexing parts of Russian Siberia for its oil, gas, and minerals — a signal of who's really in charge.

Outlook: On the current path, Russia keeps fading and its dependence on China keeps growing, pushing Moscow toward becoming Beijing's junior partner.