Trump has ended the US–Iran truce and restarted the war, which is bad news for oil, food, and the global economy.

• The peace deal is dead, US strikes have resumed, and Iran is hitting back at Gulf bases hosting US forces.
• Oil jumped about 7% toward $80 a barrel, and prices will climb higher the longer the fighting drags on.
• Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and is choking off traffic — ship crossings have collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels.
• The strait also carries a third of the world's fertilizer, so food supply and prices are set to take a hit too.
• The US has drained its emergency oil reserves to hold prices down, leaving little cushion if things get worse.

Outlook: If the war and the Hormuz blockade continue, expect higher oil, higher food prices, rising inflation, and growing risk of a global downturn.