China Doesn't Need to Outspend America in AI

Jul 10, 2026

China is keeping pace in AI while spending a fraction of what the US does, which is bad news for American companies footing the research bill.

  • China trains its AI models by learning from the answers of existing US models — essentially copying the homework for cheap.
  • This trick, called distillation, skips the billions spent teaching a model from scratch.
  • The US pays for the hardest research, then China compresses the results into smaller, cheaper models.
  • China gives these models away for free (open source), so anyone can download them.
  • In effect, every dollar of US AI spending helps fund China's AI industry.

Outlook: Expect China to keep closing the gap cheaply as long as US labs lead the expensive frontier research.

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