A fragile US-Iran deal is falling apart and a fresh war looks possible, which is bad for oil markets, Iran, and anyone hoping for calm in the region.

• A near-final deal over ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed with just days left, after Iran fired on Gulf ships crossing without notifying it.
• The US is now hitting Iran's railways and bridges, a warning that it can also cut off Iran's backup routes for shipping oil if full war returns.
• Israel is pushing the story that regime change would have worked if Kurdish fighters had been armed, an effort to talk Trump into restarting the war.
• Israel handed the US intelligence about a new Iranian plot to kill Trump, timing that conveniently lines up with its campaign to reignite the conflict.
• Inside the White House, war skeptics like Witkoff and Kushner are being sidelined as hawks like Rubio move to sabotage the talks.

Outlook: Expect more limited strikes and diplomatic drift; a full war is unlikely soon because oil reserves are low and the Strait is still barely functioning.