Bad-news take on two fronts: fresh shooting between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, and a claim that U.S. spy agencies now serve Israel's interests over America's.

• The U.S. and Iran are trading fire again in the Strait of Hormuz, each reading a recent deal differently over who controls ship traffic.
• Iran thinks a new southern shipping route through Omani waters is a trap to strip away its main bargaining chip, so it fired warning shots at ships that skipped coordinating with it.
• A near-deal would have had ships notify both Iran and Gulf states, but it fell apart, and the fighting restarted.
• Oil markets stayed calm mainly because inventories were already high; a JD Vance comment suggested the U.S. is stalling on peace talks just to refill oil stocks before any wider war.
• The second half argues U.S. intelligence has drifted from treating Israel as a spying threat to merging militaries and tech, framing this as a loss of sovereignty.

Outlook: Expect more on-and-off clashes in the strait until a final deal is reached, with no quick U.S. military option on the table before the midterms.