The fighting between the US and Iran has escalated into a full war over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and this time the usual Monday peace talk hasn't shown up — bad news for markets, oil, and anyone hoping the conflict would cool off.

• The US launched fresh strikes on 140 Iranian military sites and Trump says America "will take over" the Strait of Hormuz.
• The fight is no longer about regime change or nukes — it's about who controls the strait, Iran's main source of power and money.
• Iran is hitting back at oil infrastructure in Gulf countries like Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is now bombing Yemen again, risking a wider oil chokepoint crisis.
• Iran is betting Trump blinks first; hardliners at home are pushing to fight rather than give up the strait.
• Stock futures are down and oil prices are up as the usual quick de-escalation failed to appear this week.

Outlook: Expect more escalation — possibly US warships in the strait or a grab for Iran's Car Island — until one side accepts a humiliating climbdown.