Good news for the bulls: June inflation fell hard and Bitcoin is pushing up against a breakout, though the new Fed chair is keeping rate hikes on the table.

• June inflation dropped sharply — the biggest single-month fall in six years — which markets loved.
• New Fed chair Kevin Warsh told Congress he won't give forward guidance and that rate hikes are still possible if the data calls for it.
• Bitcoin is right below its key breakout level and momentum is turning up across several time frames.
• Tech stocks are catching a strong bid, and the S&P and Nasdaq trend is still pointed up, not bearish until at least Q4.
• Fear is high (sentiment at 22) even as price climbs — a gap that often comes before a relief rally.

Outlook: If Bitcoin closes above its breakout level, expect a push toward higher targets; otherwise it likely chops in this range into late summer.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish lean, but still in a downtrend on higher time frames until the breakout confirms.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Midband tests have all been buys; short $59,000 and $57,000 puts held (profitable as long as BTC stays above $59,000).
• **Support:** ~$60,000, January lows; range bottom holding.
• **Resistance:** $64,400 (CME closing breakout level), $65,500 last lower high.
• **Targets:** $65,400, then $67,000, up to $68,600 on continuation; daily corrective target $65,500.
• **Invalidation:** Daily close back below $64,400 kills the breakout; conservative trigger is the early-July high near $64,700. Weekly upside cross needs a close above ~$63,900.