Trump is restarting a full-scale war with Iran and floated a 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz, bad news for oil markets and anyone who wants the conflict to stay contained.

• Trump proposed charging a 20% toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, then dropped the idea within a day.
• The toll would have raised oil and gas prices, and angered Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE whose oil ships through the strait.
• Peace talks with Iran have collapsed, and Trump says the U.S. will keep bombing and has told Congress the war is back on.
• Most Americans and most of the world oppose the war, with Israel the main backer of continuing it.
• Markets and the media are largely ignoring the escalation, even as a third round of the Iran war begins.

Outlook: A national address is set for Thursday, and heavier bombing is expected, pointing to a wider war and higher oil prices ahead.