A restarted US-Iran war is bad news for the global economy, oil prices, and Trump heading into the midterms.

• Trump has flipped back to war with Iran after abandoning talks, and Iran is again threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route.
• The timing is dangerous: oil reserves never got refilled after the last shock, so a price spike would hit much faster this time.
• With midterm elections 16 weeks away, Iran thinks it can outlast the US because it has a higher tolerance for economic pain.
• Trump also greenlit renewed Saudi strikes on Yemen's Houthis, which could choke another key shipping lane and push oil higher.
• A New York Times report says Israel spent years secretly courting former Iranian president Ahmadinejad for a regime-change plot that fell apart.

Outlook: Expect more fighting and rising oil prices in the near term, with any return to talks unlikely until both sides accept that force changes nothing.