Pro-Israel groups are spending heavily to sink progressive Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary — bad news for outsider candidates, and a warning about how much money can move a race.

• El-Sayed has slipped behind Rep. Haley Stevens in recent polls, though committed voters put the race in a near dead heat.
• Outside groups tied to AIPAC have spent roughly $50 million boosting Stevens and attacking El-Sayed, against his campaign's $2.5 million.
• The ads paint El-Sayed as sexist and imply Stevens is backed by the Obamas — claims called misleading, and Obama has not endorsed anyone.
• El-Sayed, who has criticized Israel, is the latest to face this playbook after Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, and Thomas Massie all drew big spending against them.
• The money also flows to local TV stations, which the argument goes buys softer coverage of who is funding the ads.

Outlook: The primary is in three weeks, and an El-Sayed win despite the spending gap would be a rare setback for the pro-Israel lobby's influence.