Trump is threatening to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges unless it negotiates, a dangerous escalation with no clear off-ramp.

• Trump says the strikes will keep getting harder each night, moving next to power plants and bridges — civilian targets.
• The message is muddled: JD Vance claims peace talks are ongoing while Trump talks only about more bombing.
• Iran is fighting an asymmetric war, using the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz to squeeze concessions out of the US.
• Neither pressure nor incentives are working, leaving Trump stuck with no way out of the conflict.
• Israel is cast as the one party pushing to keep the war going, repeatedly breaking any agreement.

Outlook: More strikes look likely with no deal in sight, keeping oil and the Strait of Hormuz at risk.