The West is on dangerous ground with both Russia and Iran, and a coming energy crunch could tip Europe and possibly the US into recession — bad news for almost everyone except Russia.

• Russia sees the Ukraine war as an existential fight for survival and has a clear long-term strategy, while the West is just improvising with weapons and slogans.
• A near-signed peace deal early in the war fell apart after Boris Johnson, backed by Biden, pushed Ukraine to keep fighting.
• If Europe keeps firing long-range missiles deep into Russia, Russia may hit back at European drone factories and energy sites — and Europe has almost no way to stop hypersonic missiles.
• Europe cut itself off from Russian oil, gas, and diesel, leaving it weak; an attack on energy terminals could crash its economy fast.
• The closed Strait of Hormuz is pulling huge amounts of oil off the market, and the real price crunch is expected to show up by late summer and into the new year.

Outlook: Expect a serious recession starting in the fall and rising political pressure that could push both the Iran and Ukraine wars toward an end — unless Russia is provoked into striking Europe first.