Renewed U.S. attacks on Iran are pushing oil back toward triple digits, which is bad for inflation, stocks, and anyone paying for gas or groceries.

• The ceasefire appears dead — the U.S. has struck Iran nine times, and Iran is hitting back at Gulf oil sites in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain.
• The Strait of Hormuz is barely open, with less than 20% of normal ship traffic, so oil is not flowing out and crude has jumped above $90.
• June inflation cooled only because oil had dropped to $70; with crude climbing again, July inflation could jump back above 4%.
• Higher inflation could force the Fed to raise rates sooner, which would hit an already shaky stock market and the AI data-center boom.
• China quietly benefits — expensive oil hurts U.S., Japanese, and Korean manufacturers, making Chinese goods look cheaper worldwide.

Outlook: If the war drags on or China ramps its oil buying back up, crude could spike toward $120 and reignite a global cost-of-living crisis.