Washington insiders are increasingly accused of using non-public information to win bets on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi — bad for anyone betting against them, and another hit to trust in Congress.

• Luna allegedly told influencer Rogan O'Handley ("DC Draino") that Trump would pick JD Vance as VP, letting him place a winning bet; both deny it.
• Political betting on Polymarket doubled to over $4 billion in the first three months of the year.
• Trump's teleprompter operator was separately accused of betting on words Trump would say and making over $100,000.
• The Senate has banned its members and staff from betting on these sites, and House Oversight has opened an insider-trading investigation.
• The irony: Luna has been one of the loudest voices pushing to ban members of Congress from trading stocks.

Outlook: Federal regulators are investigating, but insider trading cases like this are notoriously hard to prove, so expect more exposés than convictions.