The Iran war is escalating badly, with US troops dead, ships burning in the Strait of Hormuz, and no realistic path to an American win.

• Trump says Iran will pay "many times over" for every US soldier killed, and is picking between a 10-day ceasefire and a huge joint attack with Israel.
• Iran is hitting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis now threaten any ship that stops at a Saudi port, squeezing global oil.
• US intelligence says more bombing will not soften Iran's position — air power alone has never forced a government to surrender.
• Israel claims Iran hid thousands of centrifuges inside Pickax Mountain, a target too deep for normal bombs, raising fears of wild escalation.
• Three Americans were killed when Iranian missiles hit a barracks in Jordan; Iranian civilians, including students, have died in US strikes.

Outlook: A short ceasefire looks unlikely to hold, so expect more strikes, more attacks on shipping, and higher oil prices in the coming weeks.