A blunt take on retirement math that will feel discouraging to most savers: the claim is that even $7 million falls short for a young family.

• The argument: a family of four retiring young now needs $8–10 million, not the usual $4 million rule of thumb.
• The reason is fear of a 50% market crash, which would cut savings in half.
• So the idea is to hold double your target as a buffer, then let a downturn drop you to the "real" number.
• By this logic every goalpost doubles — hit $10 million and you'll suddenly feel you need $20 million.

Outlook: Expect this "save far more than the old rules say" mindset to keep spreading as people worry about a big market drop.