Iraq is at risk of being dragged into the wider Iran-US conflict as Iranian-backed militias fire from its soil, and its new prime minister is fighting to stop them — bad news for Iraq's fragile stability.

• Iran uses armed groups inside Iraq to attack US forces and Gulf states, then lets Iraq absorb the retaliation instead of Iran itself.
• These groups have launched waves of drone and missile strikes, prompting joint US-Saudi airstrikes across Iraq that killed militia fighters and Iranian advisers.
• New PM Ali al-Zaidi is trying to force all armed groups under state control by a September 30 deadline and just arrested dozens of lawmakers for funneling oil money to the militias.
• The hardest-line pro-Iran groups refuse to disarm, and one recently surrounded and fired warning shots at a government raid team, which then retreated.
• The fear is that stockpiles of missiles sitting in Baghdad could turn Iraq into "a second Lebanon" — a weak state controlled by Iran-backed forces.

Outlook: The September 30 disarmament deadline is likely to be missed, setting up a dangerous showdown between Baghdad and the pro-Iran militias.