AIPAC's massive spending failed to stop Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, and the group is now considering backing the Republican instead — a sign its influence over Democratic voters is slipping.

• AIPAC and allied groups poured over $60 million into the primary to help Haley Stevens, but El-Sayed, a critic of Israel, won anyway.
• The group's election arm still has about $80 million on hand and is weighing tens of millions to help Republican Mike Rogers win in November.
• El-Sayed is daring them to spend more, betting that attacks over his stance on Israel only boost his support.
• His positions poll above 60% with the general public and over 80% among Democrats, yet mainstream coverage labels him "radical" and Stevens "moderate."
• Nearly half of Michigan Democrats now view AIPAC unfavorably, versus 12% favorably, and even the left-leaning J Street warns the Rogers plan would backfire.

Outlook: AIPAC appears set to fund Rogers in the general election, making the Michigan Senate race a key test of whether attacks tied to Israel still move voters.