Ukraine may finally be able to hit Russia the way Russia has hit it — a shift that puts Putin on the defensive but carries real risk for Ukrainian civilians.

• Ukraine now builds its own long-range drones and missiles, and has punched huge holes in Russia's air defenses, striking oil refineries, St. Petersburg, and targets near Moscow.
• The plan for winter is a pain-tolerance contest: knock out Russian power and fuel to make ordinary Russians — long shielded from the war — feel it for the first time.
• The catch is Ukraine is dangerously low on Patriot interceptors, because the U.S. is burning through them in its own fight with Iran and won't resupply Kyiv anytime soon.
• That shortage means Russian missiles are now getting through almost unopposed, killing more civilians and letting Russia target water systems this winter, which is deadlier than hitting power.
• Watch for a Russian mass mobilization — pulling troops from wealthy cities could finally crack public support for Putin if he misjudges it.

Outlook: Both sides are set to bombard each other's power grids this winter in a brutal test of who breaks first, with no clear favorite.