Bitcoin is pushing up against the level that has marked the start of every past bull run, which is good news for buyers — but the signal isn't confirmed yet.

• Bitcoin just made a $10,000 move and is trying to break out of a five-year sideways range.
• The weekly EMA ribbon is the key tell: price must close above it, then the ribbon itself must flip up.
• Neither condition is met yet, so a fake rally that traps buyers before one more drop is still possible.
• Existing long positions are sitting on large profits and staying open, with more buying planned on either a breakout or a deeper dip.

Outlook: A weekly close above the ribbon followed by a bullish flip would confirm the new bull market; until then, expect big swings both ways.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Cautiously bullish — bull market not yet confirmed.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Existing longs held; add on a confirmed break above $79,000, or on a lower dip for a better entry.
• **Resistance:** $79,000 (weekly EMA ribbon).
• **Targets:** $78,000+ is where both confirmation conditions would be met.
• **Invalidation:** Failure to hold above the EMA ribbon — would mark it a dead cat bounce and open a move lower.