Republican Mike Rogers is turning down AIPAC money in Michigan, a sign that pro-Israel donations have become a liability rather than an asset in a competitive race.

• Rogers, long a reliable ally of Israel, is refusing AIPAC funding in his Michigan Senate bid.
• His reasoning is purely about winning: taking the money would cost him the seat.
• Michigan's large Arab American population and shifting public mood on Gaza make the group's backing politically toxic.
• The bigger story is that AIPAC's checkbook no longer buys automatic loyalty, even from its own favorites.

Outlook: Expect more candidates in swing states to quietly distance themselves from pro-Israel money as the midterms approach.