The US is putting cash bounties on Iran's top leadership six months into a war that its own intelligence agencies warned would go exactly this way — bad news for anyone hoping the conflict winds down.

• The State Department is offering $10 million for information on Iran's new supreme leader and other Revolutionary Guard commanders, a move widely read as targeting them for assassination.
• Before the February 28 strike, US intelligence warned that killing Iran's supreme leader would bring in a harder-line government, push Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, shake global energy markets, and trigger attacks on US forces — all of which happened.
• Trump was told this by his own intelligence chief and top military officers, and went ahead anyway; only JD Vance and Tucker Carlson pushed back.
• The Pentagon's top general assured Trump the military could handle any complications, giving cover for the decision rather than the independent advice the job requires.
• The men now being hunted only hold power because of the strike, and Iran has plenty of replacements ready if they are killed.

Outlook: The same officials who backed the war are still running it, so expect escalation and more targeted killings rather than an off-ramp.