Canada is moving to cut its dependence on the US market, a shift that is bad for Washington's leverage and for demand for US dollars and government debt.

• Trump is grouping Canada with China as a trade adversary and threatening bigger tariffs, pushing Ottawa to find another big customer fast.
• Canada sends over $450 billion in goods and services to the US each year, so a full break would hurt both sides badly.
• Energy is the bargaining chip: the US buys most of its imported oil from Canada, and its refineries are built for Canadian heavy crude.
• Europe wants cheap, reliable energy after cutting off Russian gas, and Germany's Uniper has already signed a 20-year deal for Canadian LNG.
• More Canada-EU trade settled in euros would slowly shrink the need to hold US dollars and Treasury bonds, at a time when Japan and China are already selling.

Outlook: The pipelines and export terminals are years away, so the pivot will be slow, but the direction is set and Washington's grip on its allies keeps loosening.