The Fed looks set to hold rates steady rather than hike, which is good news for stocks in the near term.

• Markets put a low chance on a September hike but see a better-than-even chance of at least one hike by December.
• Two Trump-appointed Fed officials have signaled no rush to hike, arguing inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and AI costs will fade within a year or two.
• There is also a political reason to wait: raising rates before the election would embarrass the president who appointed them.
• The Fed members loudly demanding hikes are the same ones who already voted for them, so nothing has really changed.
• Google's stock falling after its huge bond raise suggests money is already getting tighter without the Fed doing anything.

Outlook: Once Jackson Hole passes without a surprise, stocks could keep climbing on AI spending, though the underlying boom still looks shaky further out.