Apple has set its next iPhone event for September 9, with a foldable "iPhone Ultra" expected — exciting for fans, but the stock already looks expensive.

• The foldable is rumored to cost $2,400 and could reach $3,000 with the most storage.
• Chinese engineers reportedly cracked the crease problem, using a special metal hinge that pulls the screen flat.
• Supply will be tight — production ramps slower than regular iPhones, which likely lets Apple charge even more and still sell out.
• Apple's on-device AI is finally getting useful, and running open AI models on Apple hardware could be a bigger win than Wall Street expects.
• The stock trades at 35 times earnings while analysts see under 10% profit growth a year — pricey, with a lot of hope baked in.

Outlook: A lot of good news is already in the price, so anything short of a stunning foldable at the September event risks a pullback.