Wall Street is suddenly betting the Fed will hike rates on September 16th, which would be bad for stocks, gold, and crypto alike.

• Fed chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was read as hawkish, pushing rate-hike odds from about 40% to nearly 57%.
• A closer read of what he actually said is milder: inflation is above target and progress has slowed, but summer readings came in better than expected and inflation expectations are still anchored.
• The one firm signal was that the Fed is dropping forward guidance — no more hints about what it will do next.
• Less guidance means more uncertainty for everyone except the insiders who trade on it.
• A hike would also squeeze the US government, making its own debt more expensive.

Outlook: A September hike would hit stocks, precious metals, and crypto hard, and markets now have no official steer on whether it is coming.