The US has bombed Iranian territory and Iran has already hit back, a dangerous escalation with no obvious off-ramp.

• US forces struck Larak Island, killing two, saying Iran was about to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran promised serious retaliation and fired missiles at US bases in Jordan; no casualties claimed so far, though the Pentagon's early numbers often turn out wrong.
• Four four-star commanders have formally objected to Pete Hegseth, warning that US missile stocks are running dangerously low.
• Trump and Bessent are threatening to cut countries that trade with Iran off the dollar — a move that could backfire, since Iran sits inside BRICS.
• Losing dollar users would push US interest rates and debt costs sharply higher.

Outlook: More strikes and counterstrikes look likely, with the bigger risk being an economic fight that damages the dollar itself.