Republicans are increasingly afraid of a rough midterm election, driven mostly by anger over prices and the Iran war — bad news for the party in power, good news for Democrats.

• An Oklahoma Republican, one of the safest states in the country, is warning that her own voters may split their ticket or stay home entirely.
• Inflation is the biggest problem: independents once trusted Trump far more than Democrats on prices, and now they trust Democrats by a wide margin.
• In Texas, Ken Paxton is running far behind Trump's old numbers in South Texas districts and has little party money behind him, with John Cornyn refusing to campaign for him.
• Michigan polls show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers, who already lost the state once in a much better Republican year.
• With no Supreme Court retirement to rally the base, Republicans lack a clear reason to turn out, while farmers hit by high fertilizer and diesel costs are calling it a farm apocalypse.

Outlook: Democrats hold a solid lead on the generic ballot, and Republicans may be forced to spend money defending seats in states like Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina that should be easy wins.