Hawaii's economy has essentially stopped growing, which is bad for workers, local businesses, and anyone hoping tourism will pull the islands out of it.

• Wages are not keeping up with inflation, and the islands have lost jobs over the past three months.
• Tourism is flat to slightly down — more visitors came in July but they stayed fewer days, so fewer people are in the islands at any time.
• Prices in Hawaii have risen faster than on the mainland, and after stripping out inflation, visitor spending is still below where it was before the pandemic.
• Eight in ten visitors come from the U.S. mainland, so whatever happens to the U.S. economy hits Hawaii's biggest industry directly.
• Repeated disasters — the Maui wildfires, flooding from Lala, storms in Kona — are pushing residents to leave for good, and rebuilding money makes the economy look healthier than it is.

Outlook: The next forecast is expected to turn slightly negative for both visitor arrivals and spending, with a stock market drop the biggest risk to the wealthy visitors currently propping things up.