Moscow is quietly pressing Iran not to hit Ukraine, a sign Russia fears its war merging with the US-Iran conflict — bad for Russia, potentially good for Ukraine.

• Ukraine accidentally struck an Iranian vessel, raising the risk of a direct Iran-Ukraine clash.
• Russia is urging Iran to stand down rather than retaliate.
• If Iran attacks Ukraine, the northern and southern wars fuse into one conflict with the US and Ukraine on the same side.
• That merger would likely bring more Western backing for Ukraine — the opposite of what Moscow wants.

Outlook: Expect Russia to keep restraining Iran while trying to keep the two wars separate.