The top US commander in the Pacific says fighting in the Middle East is draining weapons and attention that the Pacific may soon need — a warning sign for anyone watching China.

• More than 5% of US Pacific Command forces are tied up fighting in the Middle East.
• Missile interceptors are being used up faster than they are being built, and production has to speed up.
• Anti-ship missiles and torpedoes — the weapons that would matter most in stopping an invasion by sea — have barely been touched, and stockpiles need rebuilding.
• China is pushing hard at sea again, with signs it may try to seize Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines, a US treaty ally.
• Hawaii's Red Hill fuel leak is not considered settled until the tanks are certified closed, the water wells are running with treatment, and all monitoring wells are drilled.

Outlook: Expect more US pressure to ramp up missile production and more American forces training alongside the Philippines as the South China Sea stays tense.