South Korea is quietly refusing to join the US in the Middle East, which is bad news for Washington and a relief for Korean taxpayers ahead of their own election.

• Korea is stalling on Trump's request for troops — endless "we're considering it" delays that amount to a polite no.
• Iran has publicly warned Korea in Korean not to get involved, and is now aiming similar warnings at Canada over its support for the US.
• The US is trading fire with Iran around tankers and shipping, and there is open worry on American TV that missile stockpiles are running low.
• The UK is moving to ban trade with Israeli settlements, with France, Canada and Australia signaling similar pressure.
• Money is threaded through the war push: emergency spending on drones, including systems that pick their own targets, plus Musk's robotaxis running ahead of regulators.

Outlook: Oil is heading toward $100 a barrel with thin inventories, and Korea is likely to keep delaying until its election passes.